SHFE Zinc Rebounds from Lows, Focus on Subsequent Consumption Performance [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM September 25:

Overnight, the LME zinc contract opened at $2,893/mt. After opening, it fluctuated rangebound around the daily average line. Entering the night session, LME zinc rose rapidly, approaching the high of $2,945/mt before pulling back slightly, finally closing up at $2,922.5/mt, up $22/mt, an increase of 1.14%. Trading volume increased to 10,392 lots, while open interest decreased by 794 lots to 215,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, supported by the middle Bollinger Band. LME zinc ingot inventory continued destocking to 44,000 mt, while the LME cash-3M premiums and discounts remained high, with funding concentration staying elevated. LME zinc was boosted, with its center rebounding. Subsequent macro guidance warrants attention.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2511 contract opened at 21,935 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound, testing a low of 21,895 yuan/mt, then gradually fluctuated upward, touching a high of 22,000 yuan/mt. Approaching the end of the session, SHFE zinc shifted back to a fluctuating trend, finally closing up at 21,995 yuan/mt, up 135 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.62%. Trading volume increased to 72,756 lots, while open interest decreased by 770 lots to 141,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, supported by the 5-day moving average below. Pulled by LME zinc, SHFE zinc rebounded from lows during the night session. However, smelters maintained strong production enthusiasm, and the domestic zinc surplus logic persists. Under continued fundamental pressure, SHFE zinc's rebound is expected to be limited.